Original blog

A list of articles from the original WordPress blog. Active from April 2014 to June 2021. Link here

Links Dom has put in the articles have been extracted and are displayed beneath each article with their http response code. '200' codes will resolve, '404' codes definitely won't. Other codes (300s, 500s) are a mixed bag.


April 23, 2021

Statement regarding No10 claims today

January 2, 2020

‘Two hands are a lot’ — we’re hiring data scientists, project managers, policy experts, assorted weirdos…

ApolloBret VictorexpertsGeorge MuellerGrovesiJudea Pearlmachine learningManhattan ProjectprocurementVictoria WoodcockWarren Buffett

November 27, 2019

On the referendum #34: BATSIGNAL!! DON’T LET CORBYN-STURGEON CHEAT A SECOND REFERENDUM WITH MILLIONS OF FOREIGN VOTES

David DeutschEU referendum

June 26, 2019

On the referendum #33: High performance government, ‘cognitive technologies’, Michael Nielsen, Bret Victor, & ‘Seeing Rooms’

ApolloBezosBret VictorCamerondata scienceexpertsFacebookGeorge MuellerHeywoodManhattan ProjectMediaMichael NielsenpandemicsScott AlexanderSpaceWarren BuffettWMD

March 27, 2019

On the referendum #24N: Actions have consequences

CadwalladrCollinsEU referendumVote Leave

March 11, 2019

On the referendum #32: Science/productivity — a) small teams are more disruptive, b) ‘science is becoming far less efficient’

Alan KayCollisonDARPAMichael NielsenScott Alexander

March 6, 2019

Complexity and prediction VI: a model predicts the frequency and severity of interstate wars, ‘a profound mystery for which we have no explanation’

predictionswargames

March 4, 2019

The most secure bio-labs routinely make errors that could cause a global pandemic & are about to re-start experiments on pathogens engineered to make them mammalian-airborne-transmissible

pandemics

March 1, 2019

On the referendum #31: Project Maven, procurement, lollapalooza results & nuclear/AGI safety

A2/ADAIDARPADeep MinddronesGeorge MuellerGrovesHassabisHeywoodJudea PearlLipsonO'DonnellObamaCareOgarkovONAOpenAIpandemicsPARCprocurementProject MavenQian XuesenRMAroboticsSchmidhuberSchrieverShane LeggStuart Russellswarms

February 21, 2019

On the referendum #30: Genetics, genomics, predictions & ‘the Gretzky game’ — a chance for Britain to help the world

AIAlan KayDARPAGelmangenomicsHeckmanHsuIQNHSPARCPlomin

September 11, 2018

#29 On the referendum & #4c on Expertise: On the ARPA/PARC ‘Dream Machine’, science funding, high performance, and UK national strategy

AIBill GatesChinaDARPAEU referendumexpertsGigerenzerHogarthHsuintellectual propertyIQMark WarnerOpenAIprocurementscience policySingle Marketvon NeumannWarren BuffettWMD

August 8, 2018

On the referendum #28: Some interesting stuff on AI/ML with, hopefully, implications for post-May/Hammond decisions

AIDeep MindShane Legg

July 28, 2018

On the referendum #24M: Carole asks me questions, I answer — can MPs handle the truth?

CadwalladrCollinsEU referendum

July 27, 2018

On referendum #24L: Fake news from the fake news committee, Carole, and a rematch against the public

CadwalladrCollinsEU referendumFacebook

July 22, 2018

On the referendum #24K: Observer fake news and a suggestion — I and the MPs discuss this with all of us under oath

CadwalladrEU referendumVote Leave

June 18, 2018

Should we trust London police (and therefore the Mayor’s/Home Office’s) claims on crime stats?

crimeIslingtonmoped

June 11, 2018

On the referendum #27: Banks, Russia, conspiracies and Vote Leave

EU referendumVictoria WoodcockVote Leave

June 8, 2018

On the referendum #26: How to change science funding post-Brexit [updated with comment by Alan Kay]

DARPAEU referendumimmigrationPARCscience policy

June 5, 2018

Effective action #4b: ‘Expertise’, prediction and noise, from the NHS killing people to Brexit

Alan KayBret VictorchecklistsEU referendumGeorge MuellerGigerenzerMichael NielsenNHSPARCVote Leave

May 24, 2018

On the referendum #24J: Collins, grandstanding, empty threats & the plan for a rematch against the public

350mAdonisCampbellCBIEU referendumFacebookGeorge MuellerGoldman SachsMandelsonpolitical partiesVote Leave

May 23, 2018

On the referendum #25: a letter to Tory MPs & donors on the Brexit shambles

EU referendumpolitical partiesUKIPVote Leave

May 22, 2018

Effective action #4a: ‘Expertise’ from fighting and physics to economics, politics and government

AIAlan KayexpertsGlenn GouldGowersGracieHonnoldHsujiujitsuLaird HamiltonMayweatherpredictionsUFC

May 21, 2018

State-of-the-art in AI #1: causality, hypotheticals, and robots with free will & capacity for evil (UPDATED)

AIartificial neural networksJudea Pearlmachine learningpredictions

May 21, 2018

On the referendum 24I: new research on Facebook & ‘psychographic’ microtargeting

CadwalladrFacebookKosinskipolitical partiespolls

May 18, 2018

On the referendum #24H: Facebook, data science, technology, elections, and transparency

AIQCadwalladrCRISPREU referendumFacebookHelmMerrickpolitical partiesVote Leave

May 10, 2018

On the referendum #24G: Grandstanding MPs and the Zoolander inquiry

EU referendumVote Leave

April 27, 2018

On the referendum #24F: Another central claim of the Observer/Channel 4 conspiracy blows up

CadwalladrCameroncharter of fundamental rightsECHREU referendumgrieveHeywoodHuman Rights ActOsborneVictoria WoodcockWylie

April 26, 2018

On the referendum #24E: Facebook proves central allegation in Observer/Channel 4 conspiracy theory is wrong

AIQCadwalladrEU referendumFacebookWylie

March 28, 2018

On the referendum #24D: Walter Mitty, CA, and the Guardian/Observer’s own ‘personal data harvesting’

CadwalladrEU referendumVote LeaveWylie

March 24, 2018

On the referendum #24C: Whistleblowers and C4/Observer accusations — they promised Watergate and delivered Zoolander

CadwalladrEU referendumVote LeaveWylie

March 24, 2018

On the referendum #24B: Whistleblowers, ‘outing’, the ECHR

CadwalladrEU referendumVote LeaveWylie

March 23, 2018

On the referendum #24: Global conspiracies and a Scooby Doo ending?

CadwalladrEU referendumVote LeaveWylie

September 29, 2017

Review of Allison’s book on US/China & nuclear destruction, and some connected thoughts on technology, the EU, and space

AlibabaAllisonBismarckChinaCollisonEUKoreaSun TzuTaiwanThucydidesWMD

June 27, 2017

The unrecognised simplicities of effective action #3: lessons on ‘capturing the heavens’ from the ARPA/PARC project that created the internet & PC

June 23, 2017

On the referendum #23, a year after victory: ‘a change of perspective is worth 80 IQ points’ & ‘how to capture the heavens’

Alan KayBezosBill GatesDARPAEUEU referendumGeorge MuellerIQMediaMichael NielsenMonnetPARCpunditsUS ConstitutionVote LeaveWarren Buffett

June 16, 2017

Complexity and Prediction Part V: The crisis of mathematical paradoxes, Gödel, Turing and the basis of computing

GödelMichael NielsenTuring

June 12, 2017

Unrecognised simplicities of effective action #2(b): the Apollo programme, the Tory train wreck, and advice to spads starting work today

CameronOsborneSpadsVictoria WoodcockVote Leave

February 14, 2017

Unrecognised simplicities of effective action #2: ‘Systems’ thinking — ideas from the Apollo programme for a ‘systems politics’

EU referendumexoplanetsGeorge MuellerTuringvon Neumann

January 30, 2017

On the referendum #22: Some numbers for the Vote Leave campaign

BBCBorisCameronColonel BoydEUEU referendumOsbornepollspunditsUKIPVictoria Woodcock

January 23, 2017

Specialist maths schools – some facts

CameronGoveIQkolmogorovmaths schoolsOsborneperelman

January 14, 2017

Please help: how to make a big improvement in the alignment of political parties’ incentives with the public interest?

political parties

January 13, 2017

Unrecognised simplicities of effective action #1: expertise and a quadrillion dollar business

Colonel BoydCRISPRdronesEUexpertsHFTmachine learningMichael NielsenpredictionsThielVote Leavewargames

January 9, 2017

On the referendum #21: Branching histories of the 2016 referendum and ‘the frogs before the storm’

BBCBismarckBlairBorisCameronCleggColonel BoydCraig DreDavid DeutschECHREUEU referendumexpertsForeign OfficeGisela StuartGoveHeywoodLlewellynMediapollspredictionspunditsSingle MarketTetlockUKIPVote Leave

November 24, 2016

A review of Tetlock’s ‘Superforecasting’ (2015)

expertsIQpredictionspunditssuperforecastersTetlock

October 29, 2016

On the referendum #20: the campaign, physics and data science – Vote Leave’s ‘Voter Intention Collection System’ (VICS) now available for all

CameronCraig Dredata scienceEUEU referendumexpertsGoveGowersLlewellynmachine learningMediaPaul StephensonpollsPPEpredictionspunditsThucydidesVICSVictoria WoodcockVote Leave

July 3, 2016

On the referendum #19: Final message from Vote Leave HQ to our supporters

BorisCameronEU referendumGoveSingle Market

October 6, 2015

On the referendum #18: the ECJ uses the Charter of Fundamental Rights to take more power over the UK, this is just the start

September 26, 2015

On the referendum #17: The state of the campaign

5 Presidents ReportCameronEU referendumpollsSingle MarketUKIPUN 1951 convention

September 15, 2015

On the referendum #16: New ICM poll shows differential turnout could be important, only a third support the failing EU project

EU referendumpolls

September 1, 2015

On the referendum #15: Good news, Cameron changes the question – and a new poll

5 Presidents ReportCameronEU referendum

August 26, 2015

On the referendum #14: latest ICM poll, numbers move slightly toward NO but normal variation

EU referendumpolls

August 18, 2015

On the referendum #13: new ICM poll shows growing support for Yes/In; couple of other thoughts on education and judgement

BBCEU referendumpollspunditsThucydides

August 8, 2015

On the referendum #12: new ICM poll shows 46-36 for staying in the EU; education, BBC, propaganda, Willie Munzenberg

5 Presidents ReportBBCEU referendumForeign OfficeGisela StuartMandelsonMediapollspundits

July 20, 2015

On the referendum #11: new ICM poll on a second referendum idea, Boris etc

5 Presidents ReportBorisCameronEU referendumpolls

July 7, 2015

On the referendum #10: Do you want to be a hammer or an anvil? Building a team for the NO campaign

EU referendum

July 7, 2015

Book review: How to run a Government, by Michael Barber

BlairCameronchessKasparovMichael BarberSpadsSteve Hilton

July 6, 2015

On the referendum #9: Cameron begins his renegotiation, the Commission sets out its timetable for new Treaty pre-2025, BJ & SJ make moves, a Greek ‘no’

5 Presidents ReportBBCBorisCameronderivativesECHREU referendumGoldman SachsLlewellynSajid DavidSingle Market

July 6, 2015

On the referendum #8: Unprofessional pundit – Adam Boulton

BoultonEU referendumGove

June 30, 2015

On the Referendum #7: Transparency for our Potemkin government – Memo to ministers and spads thinking about how you could help the NO campaign

CameronEU referendumHeywoodLlewellyn

June 23, 2015

On the Referendum #6: Exit plans and a second referendum

BorisCameronColonel BoydEU referendumpunditsSingle Market

June 21, 2015

On the Referendum #5: reports of an anti-EU advertising campaign; Greece, the euro, and predictions

Adair TurnerBBCChris PattenEU referendumHeseltineKen ClarkeLlewellynMandelsonpredictionsTetlockUKIP

June 19, 2015

On the referendum #4: An Exploratory Committee and the beginning of a NO campaign

EU referendumSingle Market

June 3, 2015

On the Referendum #3: The errors of Steve Richards

BBCEU referendumMediapunditsSingle MarketSteve Richards

May 30, 2015

On the Referendum #2: The Lisbon Treaty compared with the Articles of Confederation & US Constitution

CameronEpsteinEU referendumSingle MarketUS Constitution

May 11, 2015

On the Referendum #1: Gove and the Human Rights Act

CameronECHREU referendumGoveHuman Rights Act

February 5, 2015

Bureaucratic cancer and the sabotage of A Level reform

GoveOfqualSpadsWormald

January 27, 2015

Standards In English Schools Part I: The introduction of the National Curriculum and GCSEs

BakerGoveGowersHoskinsJosephMark WarnerOfqualOfstedTeacher trainingThatcher

January 26, 2015

Standards In English Schools Part 0: Introduction

GoldacreGoveOfstedWormald

January 16, 2015

International GCSEs and the DfE ban – was there a better path?

GoveOfqual

December 4, 2014

Times op-ed: What Is To Be Done? An answer to Dean Acheson’s famous quip

'Odyssean' educationCameronCleggGoveGowersHsuMichael NielsenPhysics for Presidentsvon Neumann

November 13, 2014

Low quality journalism from Prospect on the sensitive subject of genes and IQ

Essay updatesHsuIQMediaPlomin

October 30, 2014

The Hollow Men II: Some reflections on Westminster and Whitehall dysfunction

CameronCleggGoveLlewellynSpads

September 17, 2014

Complexity, ‘fog and moonlight’, prediction, and politics IV – The birth of computational thinking

September 11, 2014

Complexity, ‘fog and moonlight’, prediction, and politics III – von Neumann and economics as a science

predictionsvon Neumann

September 10, 2014

Complexity, ‘fog and moonlight’, prediction, and politics II: controlled skids and immune systems (UPDATED)

'Odyssean' educationEssay updatespandemicspredictions

September 10, 2014

Times op-ed: The Gove reforms

CameronGoveSpadsTeacher training

August 26, 2014

UPDATE DOC – Open Policy Experiment 1: School Direct and Initial Teacher Training

EduWikiOfstedSpadsTeacher training

August 19, 2014

‘Standin’ by the window, where the light is strong’: de-extinction, machine intelligence, the search for extra-solar life, autonomous drone swarms bombing Parliament, genetics & IQ, science & politics, and much more @ SciFoo 2014

'Odyssean' educationartificial neural networksBasic incomeCRISPRdronesexoplanetsGeorge ChurchGershenfeldGoogleHelbingHsuIQPlanetary Nervous SystemSuarezvon Neumann

July 22, 2014

Open Policy Experiment 1: School Direct and Initial Teacher Training (UPDATED 25/7)

EduWikiSpadsTeacher training

July 17, 2014

Wargame predictions from 2010 – how well did the Cameroons do?

Cameronpredictionswargames

July 11, 2014

Complexity, ‘fog and moonlight’, prediction, and politics I

June 30, 2014

My report for Business for Britain on the dynamics of the debate over the EU, and a small but telling process point on the EU

EU

June 20, 2014

A few responses to comments, misconceptions etc about my Times interview

Spads

June 16, 2014

Gesture without motion from the hollow men in the bubble, and a free simple idea to improve things a lot which could be implemented in one day (Part I)

May 13, 2014

Babble in the Bubble: UFSM, Clegg’s lies, and the general dysfunction of the British state

CleggFSM

April 8, 2014

Some interesting things I’ve read recently (March)

'Odyssean' educationEssay updates

March 14, 2014

A few thoughts on free school meals, Ofsted, and an answer to S Jenkins

CleggFSMOfstedSpads

March 10, 2014

Some interesting things I’ve read recently

'Odyssean' educationEssay updates

November 19, 2013

An essay: ‘Some thoughts on education and political priorities’

'Odyssean' educationpandemics