Substack blog
A list of the Substack articles. Active from June 2021 to the present. Link here
2024-05-03
Dostoyevsky, the modern intelligentsia, the spiritual crisis of the West
PaidCicero will have his tongue cut out, Copernicus will have his eyes put out, Shakespeare will be stoned...
2024-04-30
Breaking Kayfabe: the 'news' is faker than WWE, time for experiments!
PaidEPISODE 1: How to summarise as much as possible about how politics really works in a 60 second video?
2024-03-29
SNIPPETS 13: Trump v Biden, Tory collapse, Ukraine/NATO/China, TikTok
PaidThe war didn't start in February last year. It started in 2014… President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invading Ukraine.
2024-02-23
People, ideas, machines VII: 'The Wizard War' - lessons on technology, intelligence & organisation from World War II
PaidRV Jones's classic Memoir... Science is cumulative, the lessons. of politics are cyclical, endlessly forgotten and re-learned... Whitehall is in 'forgot & don't want to re-learn' mode...
2024-01-19
SNIPPETS 12: Paralysed force, gesture without motion -- our hollow regimes...
PaidUKR / Israel / 2024 elections / The Startup Party / elite fragmentation / lab leak case practically closed...
2023-12-14
#1 Bismarck: the ultimate practical education in the 'unrecognised simplicities' of high performance politics/government
FreeWhat sort of character changes history? What and how do we learn from history? Why is it so hard to learn the 'unrecognised simplicities' of high performance? How did he approach problems we face?
2023-11-09
How to help parents & teachers give their children better education?
FreeMaths, 'maths circles', Kolmogorov, Westminster's centralisation & vandalism
2023-11-01
Covid / Inquiry snippets
FreeI’ll post below thoughts on giving evidence and other things from the Inquiry. I’ll keep hacking this page around for a few days… UPDATED 27/11 Here is an interesting piece on the details of the west's artillery debacle. At some point people will ask with incredulity how the west could have thought this was a winning combination:
2023-10-17
Snippets 11: US deep state, how Apple is managed, laughable HS2 'evidence' to No10 in 2020, why do OneWeb
PaidSorry for delays. I’ve been stuck going through my statement for the official covid Inquiry with the Inquiry team. It has been painful. Yesterday I finally sent it in. I give evidence on 31/10. I will put the statement on my blog but have been asked not to for the moment.
2023-08-11
#4 The Startup Party: Time to Build from September and replace the Tories?
FreeAssumptions? The market opportunity? Principles for a new Party? How to grow? Stand in seats in GE24?
2023-06-09
#3 The Startup Party: reflections on the last 20 years, what could replace the Tories, and why
PaidWhat did I really spend my time on in No10, what does the VL plan imply for the old parties 2024-30; more on AI/No10
2023-06-07
#2 The Startup Party: reflections on the last 20 years, what could replace the Tories, and why
PaidBrexit debate 2016-19, 'à corsaire, corsaire et demi'
2023-06-03
The Startup Party: reflections on the last 20 years, what could replace the Tories, and why
PaidAnd building a Q&A on Brexit, what really happened in No10, covid etc
2023-04-17
#6 Regime Change: new data shows Trump beating Biden and beating AOC & Kamala more easily - plus DeSantis matchups
PaidAnother crazy election cycle with added craziness of AI deployed (maybe by China & Russia as well as both campaigns) & crazy reporting about AI
2023-03-21
Snippets 10: Trolley/covid, AI/politics & summoning the demon, bank runs/Eurozone, AMA
PaidDo 'the clever beasts have to die'?
2023-01-20
People, ideas, machines VI: the War Diaries of Alanbrooke, Chief of the Imperial General Staff
PaidA largely unknown British hero, another case study in the unrecognised simplicities of high performance (and relevant to those thinking about nuclear war, AI-alignment etc)
2022-12-13
#5 Regime Change: Rationalism in politics
PaidWhere it came from. Its errors & dangers. Rationalist morality: 'the desiccated relic of what was once the unselfconscious moral tradition of an aristocracy'. PS. The Elon Affair...
2022-11-22
#4 Regime Change, America 2024
PaidTrump's disastrous error. Why it's in AOC's interests to challenge Old Joe. Dynamics of 2024. Elite polarisation, Cicero & fishponds. Professor Sides' book on 2020. A request & offer...
2022-11-04
On Complexity, ‘fog and moonlight’, prediction, and politics VII: why social science is so bad at prediction & what is to be done
PaidIntroduction ‘Ideas thus made up of several simple ones put together, I call Complex; such as are Beauty, Gratitude, a Man, an Army, the Universe.’ Locke. ‘I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people.’ Newton, after the South Sea Bubble ‘Ponzi scheme’.
2022-10-13
Snippets 9: Tyler Cowen interview on talent; the coming Kami-kwasi collapse; what UK politics looked like in 2010
Paid'Push what is falling'
2022-09-29
SNIPPETS 8: The Human Handgrenade & Kami-kwasi fiasco... Unexplained by the media she destroyed her own power on Day 1... MISC on UKR, tech...
Paid'... lifeless eyes, like a doll’s eyes...’
2022-08-24
'People, ideas, machines' V: Colin Gray on Defence Planning
Paid'Politics is the womb in which war develops'... Errors in politics and strategy dwarf errors in operations and tactics... Relevance for UKR... Seventeen Moments of Spring...
2022-07-29
Snippets 7: A chance to replace the Tories; mass nonpayment of bills; Chinese 'engineers of the soul' on western decadénce; Deep State insight; airpower in UKR...
Paid“If the value system collapses, how can the social system be sustained?” Wu Huning, adviser to Xi. A few snippets below on: Dangerous academics on nuclear escalation Tories imploding, a chance to replace them Chances of mass non-payment of bills in Britain
2022-07-16
Snippets 6: the leadership race; SW1 Reality and Simulation - 'culture wars'; why HMT should be split up; Homer Simpson was right ‘democracy doesn’t work’; UKR...
PaidA few snippets below on: Culture wars Why HMT has too much power, destroys value, and should be split up The leadership contest SW1 myths on ‘the centre’ UKR Some random stuff In 2019 the Vote Leave team had to choose between (A) get involved in the horror, stop Corbyn, stop a second referendum, get Brexit done, see what we can do to set Britain on a new path before Boris blows up, all of which involved saving the Tory Party from self-destruction, or (B) stay out, watch the Tory Party destroy itself, Corbyn PM, second referendum, blood in the streets.
2022-07-04
Snippets 5: No10 farce, UKR, Tory 'strategy', AGI ruin, daycare, Direct Instruction, do shares only go up at night?!, NSN, abortion/US...
PaidThanks for all comments on Reading List. Snippets below on: No10 farce summary Finkelstein re Tory strategy Ukraine AGI ruin Evidence on daycare Evidence on Direct Instruction Meta-lesson from New Schools Network: Tories close things that work & don’t care about changing government
2022-06-26
Reading List
FreeAs long promised (sorry!), here are some books and a few papers I recommend. I’ve read at least some of (almost) all of them and (almost) all of most titles I refer to (not all the textbooks). Please leave errors and suggestions below, I’ll tweak and add over time and notify of updates. In particular I’ll add textbooks, history and philosophy which I’ve largely left out.
2022-05-11
Snippets 4 & AMA 1200 13 May: hundreds of Auschwitz’s in a few hours... and the media cheers like the crowds of summer 1914...
PaidDan Wang on 'engineers of the soul'... GPT3, the scaling hypothesis... SW1 sex deviants... Baby P/child abuse coverups... Imminent trolley tax u-turn
2022-04-20
'People, ideas, machines' IV: The Kill Chain
PaidInnovation & procurement... Why Pentagon/MoD are high-friction-high-latency-low-performance?... RMA/'military-technical revolution'... Why successes get cancelled... A2/AD... Russia... China...
2022-04-05
SNIPPETS 3
PaidTrump winning is 'modal outcome'... AI progress ('for progress there is no cure')... Fusion progress... Sex/Left losing...
2022-03-28
'People, ideas, machines' III: More on the fallacies of nuclear deterrence amid danger, exertion, uncertainty, and chance
FreeSchelling's game theory was dangerously misleading... How should we think of deterrence? ... What new capabilities should we prioritise?
2022-03-27
SNIPPETS 2 + Ask Me Anything
FreeWe should be encouraging a deal but our idiocracy wants the war to continue... PM's team thinks the war helps him politically... Strauss on Nietzsche...
2022-03-18
'People, ideas, machines' II: catastrophic thinking on nuclear weapons
FreeWestern theories re Soviet 'rationality' and nuclear strategy/ deterrence were revealed post-91 to be overconfident & wrong... Few realise... The rot of the UK nuclear enterprise...
2022-03-10
'People, ideas, machines' I: Notes on ‘Winning the Next War’
FreeHow do militaries innovate? Why do good ideas stall? What sort of organisations innovate best? Why can't politicians learn? Implications for UKR/Russia?
2022-02-22
Regime Change#3: Amazon's lessons on high performance management for the next PM
PaidBeing slow is expensive... Planning... Hiring... Incentivising people to seek truth & focus on long-term value, not social pressures... Responsibility/authority... Metrics... The Five Whys
2022-02-02
Tolstoy
FreeBoris and ‘the unwritten code’ of power... Learning to smile ambiguously... 'Nothing was ready for the war which everyone expected'...
2022-01-07
Parties, photos, trolleys, variants
Free15 May was no 'party'... but the inquiry should look at 20 May... MPs should learn and enforce PUBLICATION of covid 'plans'
2022-01-06
Dan Wang & Ryan Petersen on China, governance, technology, infrastructure, supply chains, ROE
PaidThings a No10 serious about government should again focus on after the PM is replaced
2021-12-18
Startup government, LKY notes #7: Good government needs great people
PaidIntense focus on LONG-TERM RECRUITMENT & DEVELOPMENT OF GREAT PEOPLE was at the heart of LKY's success... A lesson ignored in SW1 but should be copied by the next PM...
2021-12-03
Startup Government, LKY notes #6: Deng's reforms, Tiananmen, Taiwan
PaidMountains are high, the Emperor is far away... If you open the window, expect some flies...
2021-11-12
Risk, aggression, Brexit and Article 16
FreeADVICE TO TORY MPS: TRIGGERING A16 WOULD BE ANOTHER TROLLEY DISASTER
2021-11-10
Startup Government, LKY notes #5: Cold War, Soviet collapse, China/Taiwan, lessons from Japan
Paid... and some reading
2021-10-21
How could Labour win? Swap dud 'dead player' Starmer for a Midlands woman, shift HQ to a Tory-held Midlands marginal, focus on econ & crime
Free'Live in the village', focus on public, marginalise trans/BLM nutters
2021-10-13
Systems problems but no systems thinking or systems management
PaidSupply chains, energy, stockpiling, deja vu all over again in No10...
2021-09-28
Startup Government #4: next notes on LKY
PaidMalaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, ASEAN - (& a few comments on supply chains)
2021-09-10
Startup government: notes on LKY#3
PaidLingo/racial problems... Free media doesn't stop corruption, campaign $ limits do... Link public service pay to private sector growth... 'The marketplace of ideas' doesn't work... Caning works!
2021-09-03
'The fish rots from the head'
FreeBreaking the manifesto tax promise is bad politics and bad policy, good news for Starmer, good news for those who want BJ gone...
2021-09-01
Regime Change #2: A plea to Silicon Valley - start a project NOW to write the plan for the next GOP candidate
FreeThe goal is not 'reform' but *a government that actually controls the government*
2021-08-22
Afghanistan SNAFU (situation normal all fucked up): 'normal' politics,'normal' results
FreeThe PM destroyed his own grip of Whitehall/Treasury & accidentally provoked discussions about the assembly of his own firing squad...Why the government does not control the government...
2021-08-20
High performance startup government: notes on LKY #2
PaidLearning from commies... building a political machine... controversies viz talent/marriage
2021-08-12
Regime Change #1: How elite firms recruit talent & implications for high performance government
Paid... chimp politics, courtier-skills, genetics, Creators & Rulers
2021-08-02
High performance startup government & systems politics: some notes on Lee Kuan Yew’s book
PaidIntro and summary If we’re going to do politics/government much better, we must carefully study some examples. One example is LKY’s Singapore. It’s interesting not just for his mix of policies but also for his approach to government. I’ve read the first 7 chapters of LKY’s
2021-07-24
Breaking kayfabe: answers to some common questions re the BBC interview
PaidWhy do an interview with LauraK? The last interview I gave was January 2016 with the Economist, HERE, if interested in my views on the referendum and Brexit. It drove some of the ERG MPs mad. They thought MPs should do interviews, not ‘staff’. ‘Why isn’t the
2021-07-20
Subscriber only 'Ask Anything' live 1900 UK time tonight during BBC2 interview
PaidA week ago I filmed 4-5 hours of discussion with Laura Kuenssberg. The BBC has edited it into an hour long version on BBC2 this evening at 1900. We discussed the referendum, why I went to No10 in July 2019, how we handled July-December 2019, the covid nightmare, why I resigned, and some general issues about what’s wrong with politics/government and what c…
2021-07-15
Some interesting things I've read recently
PaidPlus interludes on PM 'levelling up' speech and his IRA amnesty
2021-07-05
Why I went to No10 in summer 2019
Paid‘Character is Destiny’: normal mode, self-aware mode and Carrie mode Boris
2021-07-02
Subscriber only: ask me anything (Monday 1200)
PaidAnd some links to what I've been reading...
2021-06-25
More evidence on how the PM's & Hancock's negligence killed people
FreeBelow is a note I sent on 26 April regarding how we could shift to Plan B including with a serious testing system. It helps people understand what an incredible mess testing was and why care homes were neglected. Hancock had monumentally failed. The Cabinet Office did not have the people it needed to grip the problem. Many were screaming at me that Hancock was failing to act on care homes while spinning nonsense to the Cabinet table.
2021-06-23
The UK’s procurement system & judicial review: a cold deadly monster
FreeRe the latest attack on me for moving too fast: how procurement rules + Whitehall incentives + courts kill people
2021-06-18
Subscriber only: ask me anything...
PaidI haven’t done this before so apologies if I get this wrong… Post questions here. I’ll read, Monday ~1400-1600 UK time I’ll post answers, discuss what seems most interesting. Ask anything, I will try to answer… Ok, we’re live… I’ve answered a bunch of Qs but there’s a lot…
2021-06-16
The PM on Hancock: 'totally fucking hopeless'
FreeSome evidence re my and Hancock's testimony to MPs
2021-06-10
Systems politics, systems management
FreeWelcome to my new Substack. The ABOUT page summarises some of what I’ll write about. A lot of stuff on covid will be free. Some stuff on my time in No10 will be free, some subscriber-only. More recondite stuff on the media, Westminster, ‘inside No10’, how did we get Brexit done in 2019, the 2019 election etc will be